How Cannabis, GLP-1s & Gen Z Shape Brown-Forman’s Spirits Outlook

Photo of author

By Oliver “The Data Decoder”

A prominent spirits producer, Brown-Forman Corp., known for its portfolio including Jack Daniel’s, is currently navigating a dynamic market landscape. Recent statements from the company’s leadership shed light on evolving consumer preferences and broader economic shifts that are influencing demand for alcoholic beverages.

Shifting Consumer Trends

Lawson Whiting, CEO of Brown-Forman, has consistently highlighted what he refers to as “the same big three” factors impacting liquor demand over the past 18 months. These include the increasing prevalence of cannabis, the rise of weight-loss medications, and a noticeable decline in engagement from Generation Z consumers. While acknowledging varying perspectives within the industry, Whiting emphasized that the company considers these pressures significant.

Economic Headwinds and Retail Behavior

Beyond these societal shifts, the current economic climate is also playing a role. Whiting noted that consumers are facing reduced discretionary income, leading them to prioritize essential spending and experiences like vacations and lodging. This financial constraint can result in spirits sometimes being omitted from their grocery purchases.

Despite these challenges, the spirits sector continues to demonstrate resilience by gaining market share from both beer and wine. Furthermore, while the trend of “premiumization”—consumers opting for higher-end products—has become somewhat stagnant, Whiting observed that this does not necessarily indicate a widespread downtrading to cheaper alternatives. Consumers, it appears, are not consistently choosing less expensive options.

Outlook and Financial Projections

Looking ahead, Leanne Cunningham, Brown-Forman’s CFO, anticipates a volatile operating environment that is projected to extend into fiscal year 2026. Despite this anticipated uncertainty, the company holds the view that consumer spending will likely remain at its current, sustained level.

The financial markets have reacted to these insights. The company’s stock performance reflects recent activity:

Ticker Security Last Price Change Change %
BF.B BROWN-FORMAN CORP. 28.11 +0.85 +3.14%
Share