US Sanctions on Russian Fertilizer: Impact on Latin American Agriculture and Global Food Prices

The agricultural powerhouses of Latin America face substantial economic challenges should the United States implement secondary sanctions targeting Russian fertilizer exports. Such measures could severely disrupt the supply chains for essential farm inputs, posing an existential threat to crop viability and potentially escalating food prices for global consumers, particularly within the U.S. Brazil and Mexico, both heavily reliant on Russian fertilizers for their vast agricultural sectors, are poised to bear the brunt of any such policy shift.

• Brazil imported approximately one-third of its fertilizer from Russia last year, amounting to $3.7 billion, with shipments increasing by nearly 30% in the first half of this year.
• Mexico’s agricultural sector also shows deep dependence, importing over $580 million in Russian fertilizers last year, making Russia its largest supplier.
• Industry experts warn that curtailed Russian supplies could render soybean and corn production economically unviable in Brazil and increase production costs while reducing yields for Mexican staples like avocados, potentially impacting U.S. consumers.
• Colombia is similarly dependent, with Russian fertilizer constituting about a quarter of its total imports, highlighting a broader regional vulnerability for key agricultural exporters.
• The prospect of these sanctions emerges amid U.S. efforts to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, with NATO officials noting the susceptibility of countries like Brazil to economic repercussions for continuing business with Russia.

Impact on Latin American Agriculture

Brazil’s Critical Dependence

Brazil, the world’s foremost producer of soybeans, sugar, and coffee, imported approximately one-third of its fertilizer requirements from Russia last year, a volume valued at $3.7 billion. Industry experts emphasize the critical absence of viable alternatives that could meet this demand if Russian supplies were to be curtailed. The Russian Fertilizer Producers Association reported a nearly 30% increase in shipments to Brazil during the first half of this year, underscoring the deep integration of Russian inputs into Brazil’s agricultural economy. Lucas Beber, vice president of the Brazilian grain farming group Aprosoja, has warned that fresh sanctions could render soybean and corn production economically unviable, threatening the profitability of key agricultural exports.

Mexico’s Fertilizer Vulnerability

Similarly, Mexico’s agricultural sector is profoundly intertwined with Russian fertilizer imports, which totaled over $580 million last year, establishing Russia as its largest supplier. The potential imposition of U.S. sanctions would significantly impact Mexican farmers, particularly concerning urea, a widely utilized fertilizer for staple crops such as corn, sorghum, wheat, and avocados. Raul Urteaga, formerly with Mexico’s agriculture ministry, indicated that a disruption in Russian imports could lead to a decline in fertilizer quality and a substantial increase in production costs. This ripple effect could diminish avocado yields and raise prices for U.S. consumers, considering the United States accounts for over 80% of Mexico’s more than $3 billion avocado export market.

Broader Regional Implications

The ripple effect of these potential sanctions extends across the region, with Colombia also heavily dependent on Russian fertilizer, which constitutes about a quarter of its total imports. This widespread reliance underscores a broader vulnerability across Latin American nations that serve as key suppliers of agricultural products to both the U.S. and global markets. The discussion around these potential sanctions comes amidst U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed efforts to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly identifying countries like Brazil as highly susceptible to the economic repercussions for continuing business with Russia. The complex interplay of geopolitical strategy and agricultural trade highlights the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the potential for far-reaching economic consequences.